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Pundits: The confidence trick: Better confident than right?

Ben Smith

PhD candidates at the School of Economic Sciences at Washington State University.

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Jadrian Wooten

PhD candidates at the School of Economic Sciences at Washington State University.

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First published: 20 August 2013

Abstract

Media pundits are the supreme example of self‐belief and confidence in their own opinions. Through TV, newspapers and blogs they tell us with sublime certainty what will happen. But are they right? And does it matter if they are wrong? Ben Smith and Jadrian Wooten ask what we demand from pundits – accuracy or confidence?