Volume 77, Issue 1
Original Article

Excursion and contour uncertainty regions for latent Gaussian models

David Bolin

Corresponding Author

Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden

Address for correspondence: David Bolin, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. E‐mail: davidbolin@gmail.comSearch for more papers by this author
First published: 17 March 2014
Citations: 37

Summary

In several areas of application ranging from brain imaging to astrophysics and geostatistics, an important statistical problem is to find regions where the process studied exceeds a certain level. Estimating such regions so that the probability for exceeding the level in the entire set is equal to some predefined value is a difficult problem connected to the problem of multiple significance testing. In this work, a method for solving this problem, as well as the related problem of finding credible regions for contour curves, for latent Gaussian models is proposed. The method is based on using a parametric family for the excursion sets in combination with a sequential importance sampling method for estimating joint probabilities. The accuracy of the method is investigated by using simulated data and an environmental application is presented.

Number of times cited according to CrossRef: 37

  • Mapping Geographical Patterns and High Rate Areas for Sexually Transmitted Infections in Portugal, Sexually Transmitted Diseases, 10.1097/OLQ.0000000000001122, 47, 4, (261-268), (2020).
  • Great expectations and even greater exceedances from spatially referenced data, Spatial Statistics, 10.1016/j.spasta.2020.100420, (100420), (2020).
  • A Multifidelity Quantile-Based Approach for Confidence Sets of Random Excursion Sets with Application to Ice-Sheet Dynamics, SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 10.1137/19M1280466, 8, 3, (860-890), (2020).
  • Climate sensitive single tree growth modeling using a hierarchical Bayes approach and integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) for a distributed lag model, Forest Ecology and Management, 10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118497, 478, (118497), (2020).
  • Using Bayesian spatial models to map and to identify geographical hotspots of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Portugal between 2000 and 2016, Scientific Reports, 10.1038/s41598-020-73759-w, 10, 1, (2020).
  • Integrated nested Laplace approximation method for hierarchical Bayesian inference of spatial model with application to functional magnetic resonance imaging data, Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 10.1080/03610926.2020.1776327, (1-24), (2020).
  • Influence of experimental pain on the spatio-temporal activity of upper trapezius during dynamic lifting – an investigation using Bayesian spatio-temporal ANOVA, Journal of Electromyography and Kinesiology, 10.1016/j.jelekin.2019.05.018, (2019).
  • Discrete versus continuous domain models for disease mapping, Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 10.1016/j.sste.2019.100319, (100319), (2019).
  • Anthromes displaying evidence of weekly cycles in active fire data cover 70% of the global land surface, Scientific Reports, 10.1038/s41598-019-47678-4, 9, 1, (2019).
  • A Bayesian General Linear Modeling Approach to Cortical Surface fMRI Data Analysis, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 10.1080/01621459.2019.1611582, (1-26), (2019).
  • Profile Extrema for Visualizing and Quantifying Uncertainties on Excursion Regions: Application to Coastal Flooding, Technometrics, 10.1080/00401706.2018.1562987, (1-27), (2019).
  • Adaptive Design of Experiments for Conservative Estimation of Excursion Sets, Technometrics, 10.1080/00401706.2019.1693427, (1-14), (2019).
  • Data-driven stochastic inversion via functional quantization, Statistics and Computing, 10.1007/s11222-019-09888-8, (2019).
  • Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change, The Cryosphere, 10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019, 13, 4, (1349-1380), (2019).
  • Using non-exceedance probabilities of policy-relevant malaria prevalence thresholds to identify areas of low transmission in Somalia, Malaria Journal, 10.1186/s12936-018-2238-0, 17, 1, (2018).
  • Co-morbidity of malnutrition with falciparum malaria parasitaemia among children under the aged 6–59 months in Somalia: a geostatistical analysis, Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 10.1186/s40249-018-0449-9, 7, 1, (2018).
  • Efficient Covariance Approximations for Large Sparse Precision Matrices, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 10.1080/10618600.2018.1473782, 27, 4, (898-909), (2018).
  • A two-stage approach to estimate spatial and spatio-temporal disease risks in the presence of local discontinuities and clusters, Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 10.1177/0962280218767975, (096228021876797), (2018).
  • Estimating Orthant Probabilities of High-Dimensional Gaussian Vectors with An Application to Set Estimation, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 10.1080/10618600.2017.1360781, 27, 2, (255-267), (2017).
  • Bayesian Computing with INLA: A Review, Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 10.1146/annurev-statistics-060116-054045, 4, 1, (395-421), (2017).
  • A Bayesian heteroscedastic GLM with application to fMRI data with motion spikes, NeuroImage, 10.1016/j.neuroimage.2017.04.069, 155, (354-369), (2017).
  • Fast Bayesian whole-brain fMRI analysis with spatial 3D priors, NeuroImage, 10.1016/j.neuroimage.2016.11.040, 146, (211-225), (2017).
  • Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions, Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 10.5194/ascmo-3-67-2017, 3, 2, (67-92), (2017).
  • Confidence Regions for Spatial Excursion Sets From Repeated Random Field Observations, With an Application to Climate, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 10.1080/01621459.2017.1341838, (1-14), (2017).
  • The normal law under linear restrictions: simulation and estimation via minimax tilting, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 10.1111/rssb.12162, 79, 1, (125-148), (2016).
  • Hierarchical Bayesian level set inversion, Statistics and Computing, 10.1007/s11222-016-9704-8, 27, 6, (1555-1584), (2016).
  • Quantifying the Uncertainty of Contour Maps, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 10.1080/10618600.2016.1228537, 26, 3, (513-524), (2016).
  • Assessing comorbidity and correlates of wasting and stunting among children in Somalia using cross-sectional household surveys: 2007 to 2010, BMJ Open, 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009854, 6, 3, (e009854), (2016).
  • Environmental predictors of stunting among children under-five in Somalia: cross-sectional studies from 2007 to 2010, BMC Public Health, 10.1186/s12889-016-3320-6, 16, 1, (2016).
  • Smoothing of land use maps for trend and change detection in urbanization, Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 10.1007/s10651-016-0354-y, 23, 4, (565-584), (2016).
  • Quantifying Uncertainties on Excursion Sets Under a Gaussian Random Field Prior, SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 10.1137/141000749, 4, 1, (850-874), (2016).
  • Going off grid: computationally efficient inference for log-Gaussian Cox processes, Biometrika, 10.1093/biomet/asv064, 103, 1, (49-70), (2016).
  • The influence of socioeconomic, biogeophysical and built environment on old-age survival in a Southern European city, Health & Place, 10.1016/j.healthplace.2016.08.008, 41, (100-109), (2016).
  • Comment: Getting into Space with a Weight Problem, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 10.1080/01621459.2016.1200918, 111, 515, (1111-1118), (2016).
  • Fast matrix computations for functional additive models, Statistics and Computing, 10.1007/s11222-014-9490-0, 25, 1, (47-63), (2014).
  • Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA), Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online, 10.1002/9781118445112, (1-19), (2014).
  • Assessing the Uncertainty in Projecting Local Mean Sea Level from Global Temperature, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0308.1, 53, 9, (2163-2170), (2014).